Chasing the future is futile

You might as well try to predict where the Stock Market will be tomorrow. That only requires guessing if it will be UP, DOWN or the SAME. It becomes much more uncertain when predicting which technologies will become the most popular. Right now there exists between Google and Microsoft a rift that is wider than the one between Microsoft and Sun; the reason that the marketplace of browsers needs to support both .NET framework as well as Sun’s Java Virtual Machine.

In my humble opinion the best plan for us would be to be to draw upon the existing base of established tried and true techniques and adopt new methods slowly as we progress. Afterall in prior projects that have attempted to port their code to a new format, they have accomplished so at great risk of having nothing while spending much more time and cash than they ever could have anticipated. This continues to happen largely because people refuse to see the pattern that anything that includes the unknown is simply not at all predictable.

There is no way that the typical programmer is excellent at all disciplines required to bringup and maintain a dynamic company website. Even if they worked 24/7! Especially if you throw maintenance and future development into the picture while attempting to alter the product to target the new mobile platform. Thus asking that individual to adopt a new discipline seems unfounded. It is exciting. But the cost is exorbitant. Also one loses all those fixes! Plans to revise must be well planned. Care must be used to preserve the core of what is working while making additions and modifications.

My point is “Making” the future is a big risk, with a big reward attached. Taking a stable foundation and nuturing it and allowing it to grow will reduce the reward but make the risk much more manageable. But “Chasing” it has so much risk attached, that winning the Lottery is much more likely.